The NZD/USD pair shot straight up during the Thursday session as the "risk on" attitude came back into the global marketplace. We managed to break above the 0.8225 level, which we had as a minor resistance, and now looks set to try and reach the top of the overall consolidation at the 0.8350 level.
Having said this, with the jobs number coming out of America today, it would be reckless to put a position on right away. Simply put, the jobs number can move the Dollar as well as the commodity currencies quite a bit depending on what the release actually states. There were several anomalies in the last release, and as such there could be pretty serious downward revisions to last month's numbers.
The commodity markets will play a major role in where the New Zealand dollar ends up. This is always the case, and will especially be true as we head into the jobs number, and the US Presidential election. A win by Gov. Romney will be viewed as positive for the US dollar, as he is against the idea of keeping on the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has continue to ease monetary policy over the last several years. If the Federal Reserve ends up tightening because of the new appointee, we could see a cyclical change in the dollars favor.
Presidential politics
If the jobs number is poor, this could be seen as a potential catalyst for Gov. Romney to win the election. Alternately, if the jobs number is very strong, people may look at it as a potential boost for the Obama campaign, and have the idea that Obama will win reelection. If he does, there is a good chance that the US dollar will selloff as the deficits and Federal Reserve easing will certainly continue.
Either way, this pair will be greatly affected by both of these catalysts. This is looking more and more like it could be a three or four day event, so do not be overly surprised if the jobs number doesn't radically move the needle. We could actually be waiting until Wednesday to see any serious changes in the currency pairs out there.