The NZD/USD pair rose again during the Thursday session as the "risk on" rally continues. The Kiwi dollar is enjoying resurgence as of late due to the Federal Reserve and its loosening of monetary policy. The pair should continue to be one of the bigger performers in the near future as the Kiwi dollar is so highly leveraged to the commodity markets on the whole, and of course is a less liquid currency than its cousin across the Tasman, the Australian dollar.
Currently, it looks like we are attempting to get above the 0.8350 level. This area is a significant amount resistance as it was essentially the last high, and as such I believe that we could have a bit of a fight on our hands. I certainly wouldn't by the pair right now, but I would love to buy on a pullback as I think most commodities are going to do quite well in this environment.
I also think that the 0.82 level should serve as fairly strong support if we do fall, and as such that former resistance area should prove to be an area where more and more buyers will step in. If this area doesn't serve well as support, I also believe that the 0.80 level has serious potential too.
Watch the commodities markets
Commodity markets will certainly leave the way as to how much quantitative easing is been factored into the currency markets. For example, oil, gold, silver, and the grain markets should all do fairly well over the long run as the US dollar weakens. If this is the case, the New Zealand dollar is a nice way to play the general attitude of commodities on the whole as it isn't necessarily trying to any specific one. Because of this, I believe that this is going to be one of the better currency pairs to get involved with over the next couple of months.
As far as selling this pair, I see absolutely no reason to do so and would even think about it until we were well below the 0.80 handle. Even then, I think the 0.78 handle would come in and support as well.