Silver continues to see a lot of noise, as we are watching the interest rate world closely, with a real yield making silver a bit less attractive.
Silver
The silver market fell during the early part of the trading session on Tuesday, but did bounce a little later as there was a report coming out of the Middle East that supposedly the Americans and the Iranians had come to some kind of agreement, or at least concessions, involving the nuclear program in Iran and the frozen funds of the Iranian government by the Americans.
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Now, we haven't heard any confirmation since then, and we have seen the market give back some of that initial push to the upside. Quite frankly, with real yields being as strong as they are, it makes a certain amount of sense that silver continues to suffer.
I think silver really needs to prove itself
In order for me to be convinced that something's going on that's worth buying, I would need to see a move above $55. I don't see that happening with JOLTS coming out today, and then there's a couple of mid-level inflation numbers. Most importantly, we have Friday's nonfarm payroll number coming out of the United States. That will have a major effect on markets in general.
So again, I would need to see a move well above the $55 level. I think, between now and then, a short-term rally that shows signs of exhaustion is a selling opportunity. The market had broken back above the $50 level, but has since fallen back below there. The market now looks as if it could go looking toward $45.
Quite frankly, when you look at the longer-term charts of silver, it's in trouble. That certainly makes a certain amount of sense after what we had seen last year. The mania around silver really got out of hand.
The AI trade is still a thing. It will still demand silver down the road, and we still will have a lot of silver demand eventually. But I think you can be very patient here before trying to step in and buy it. Right now, I estimate that silver is probably going to try to find the $45 level.
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