Silver continues to see a lot of selling pressure at the moment, as we are looking at real rates rising yet again. As long as this persists, silver is going to struggle.
Silver
The silver market continues to get crushed during the trading session here on Thursday, as interest rates continue to be a major problem for silver.
Despite the fact that there is an actual tight physical supply, the reality is that real rates continue to pay you to hold government debt. And that's the story here. You can either take your chances with silver, or you can get a guaranteed above-inflation return.
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This Continues to Be a Major Problem for This Market
This continues to be a major problem for this market, which, quite frankly, has been struggling for the last 6 months. In general, there have been periods of bright positivity, but they keep getting squashed.
I do think eventually silver becomes a longer-term bullish case. We're just not there yet. We need the real rates—that's the difference between nominal interest rates and what inflation is—to come back down. Traders can simply buy a bond and make a return, so they don't feel the need to risk the volatility of silver.
At this point, it looks like we could be starting to reach towards the $45 level, the next psychologically important figure. Right now, it also looks like the $55 level continues to be a massive ceiling. This ceiling needs to be broken significantly for me to become bullish.
As things stand right now, I just continue to fade rallies, as silver just can't get out of its own way. I think this is going to last a while, and with the recent comments coming out of Washington about how they don't need a deal with Iran, that only solidifies this potential real-rate problem.
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