The copper market continues to see a lot of noise, as we are trying to test the 200 Day EMA indicator for support on Friday. As we enter the weekend, buyers are defending this market.
Copper
Copper is trying to find some type of momentum to the upside as we are hanging around the crucial 200-day EMA.
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The copper market, of course, is one that I watch very closely because it definitely ties in quite nicely with the idea of economic strength or weakness. That being said, the jobs report in the United States may give us a little bit of a shot to the upside, but we also have to worry about monetary policy at the same time. If monetary policy in the United States has to remain extraordinarily tight, that could affect financing for construction, which, of course, has a major influence on copper. Chinese demand also comes into the picture as well.
On a bounce
If the market were to continue to rally from here a swallowing of the Thursday candlestick would tell me that the buyers are getting involved above the $6.50 level. Then, I think you start to see FOMO. If we were to break down below the lows from both Thursday and Friday, it could open up a move down to the $6 level.
Longer term, I do believe that the copper market will continue to see extreme demand, but we may have been a little overdone. Ultimately, as long as we can stay above the $6 level, I don't think anything's really changed. But keep in mind that we are starting to see more supply come online from South America as labor disputes have been settled, and at the same time, we do have some monetary headwinds for a non-yielding metal, despite the fact that it's not gold and it actually has a lot of use.
The AI trade coming unwound also puts pressure on copper. We'll have to wait and see whether or not that ends up being a longer-term problem or if it's just a blip on the radar.
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