The Aussie dollar continues to see noise, but on Thursday gave back any hopes of a positive move rather quickly.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar initially did try to rally during the trading session on Thursday, testing the 50-day EMA, but then turned around to give back those gains. The area just above there at the 0.7050 level is resistance and has proven itself to be resistance multiple times in the past.
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The market has collapsed since then and fallen below the 200-day EMA, and I think this does make a certain amount of sense. Considering that the Australians recently raised rates, but at the same time, it is worth noting that 3 of the members voted not to raise rates. So, it looks like Australia might be starting to ease its hawkish stance. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, will be raising rates in December.
The nonfarm payroll announcements during the Friday session could bring the next big move
Ultimately, this is a market that I think is at a good equilibrium, and the 200-day EMA, of course, attracts a lot of headline attention. The nonfarm payroll announcements during the Friday session could be the next big move, but really, the market, I think at this point in time, I would be a little hesitant to short.
If I am going to buy U.S. dollars, it is probably not against the Australian dollar. There are a couple of areas between here and 0.6850 that could offer a bit of a floor. If we were to break down below 0.6850, then that is a different story. But if the consolidation is still there, I think you have an easier path higher than lower in this particular pair.
So, if the U.S. dollar starts to sell off, this might be a place I am interested in. This will be a reaction to the jobs report. Between now and then, I would anticipate very sleepy conditions.
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