The Aussie dollar continues to threaten the massive support just below, as we are looking at a pair that is shifting to the downside in general. The U.S. dollar continues to be a massive winner overall.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but gave back gains pretty quickly.
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The interest rate differential continues to favor the Australian dollar due to central bank policy, but the reality is that the United States pays a real yield in the bond market. As a result, some traders are simply foregoing the currency markets and buying bonds. Whether or not that plays out going forward remains to be seen, but the important thing here is that the Australian dollar is testing a major support level in the form of 0.6850.
Breaking down?
On a breakdown below here, maybe a little bit lower, closer to the 0.6825 level, it looks like we could see a bit of a drop. Rallies at this point in time are possible, but would have to be given a very short leash because a breakdown here could get ugly quickly.
A break above the 0.6940 level would be a good sign. We would have to see whether or not that could hold, but it could suggest that maybe we are staying within the consolidation area that we have been in for a while.
Quite frankly, I think there is a lot of risk appetite destruction out there, so that does tend to lend itself to stronger U.S. dollar positions anyway. Of course, Australia has to worry about energy flows and exposure to Asia.
Ultimately, this looks like a market that you need to keep an eye on. If it breaks down, it might be worth shorting. Rallies are not to be trusted, at least not in the short term, but breaking above the highs of the last couple of sessions could lend more credence to the idea of staying within the range that we have been in since the beginning of the year.
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