The U.S. dollar continues to rise against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, but we have both central banks in the forefront over the next few sessions. The interest rate situation continues to be front and center here.
USD/JPY
The U.S. dollar has risen slightly against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Tuesday to reach above the 200-day EMA, although just barely. At this point, this looks like a market that is doing everything it can to try to get towards the ¥158.50 level.
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We'll see whether or not it can break through all of that noise, though, because, quite frankly, this is an area that could be difficult. Keep in mind, interest rates in America still far outpace Japan. But it will be all about the statement and the press conference.
Interest rates are still the driver here
This week will be noisy in this particular pair, mainly due to the fact that we have an interest rate decision on Wednesday coming out of the United States, expected to be unchanged. Friday morning in Asia, we will have the Japanese releasing their latest interest rate decision statement and press conference. That obviously will be a big mover here.
All things being equal, if the market were to break above the ¥159 level, I think that would be a major victory for the U.S. dollar. Keep in mind that the interest rate differential favors the U.S. dollar, and the market turning around here probably needs some type of massive change from one of these two central banks.
Perhaps more likely than not, the Federal Reserve. If the Federal Reserve suddenly sounds dovish, then that could have this pair selling off. Right now, though, I like the idea of buying dips. I have for a while. I've been long of this for a while. I've been very patient, but get paid at the end of every day. That, of course, does help the situation if you're long.
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