The U.S. dollar continues to grind higher against the Swiss franc, as we are looking at a nice “carry trade situation” going forward. I remain bullish, and buy-the-dip in my attitude in this market.
USD/CHF
The U.S. dollar has rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Tuesday, as it looks like we are trying to get to the 0.83 level.
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The 0.83 level is an area that has been essentially fair value, and an area where you could be talking about consolidation between 0.82 and 0.84. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time, I think, do offer buying opportunities, with the 50-day EMA now looking to be technically supportive.
Swiss National Bank
Keep in mind that the Swiss National Bank has recently, in its quarterly report said it was willing to identify imbalances in the franc and intervene directly in the markets. Beyond that, they have recently reiterated their desire to have zero interest rates and keep them there. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, is fighting inflation, and the interest rate differential is still pretty wide. The U.S. interest rate range is between 3.75% and 4%, so you get paid to hold this.
If the market were to break above the 0.84 level, then the market could come into more of a FOMO trade. A breakdown below the 0.82 level, I think, could be rather negative. All things being equal, I like the idea of buying dips.
I recognize that there's a red-letter event here coming at the end of the day tomorrow. Once we get through that discussion, press conference, and statement, I think you'll see whether or not the Federal Reserve is looking to remain hawkish. If they are, that should give this pair a little bit of strength.
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