The gold market continues to see a lot of noise as we head into another FOMC interest rate decision, as well as the ECB doing the same.
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The gold market has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session here on Wednesday, which is not a huge surprise. We do have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision here shortly, and it is worth noting that interest rates have rallied a bit.
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That being said, the $4,000 level continues to be an area that I watch very closely. It is a large, round, psychologically significant figure in an area that has already proven itself to be important multiple times. We see a demand zone from a longer-term standpoint going all the way from just under $4,000 to $4,200, and we have been testing this area recently.
The question will be about the statement and the press conference.
Unfortunately, this is probably going to come down not to the interest rate decision itself, because it is expected, with about an 80% confidence factor, to be no decision. The question will be about the statement and the press conference. How worried is the Fed about inflation?
If inflation continues to be a major issue and monetary policy remains restrictive, that, in theory, works against the gold market. In fact, I think it is a very difficult market to trade right now unless they are explicitly restrictive and we break down below the $3,950 level. That is simply because the path higher is noisy until you get to about $4,250.
This does not mean that I am bearish of gold. Quite the opposite. It just means that the path of least resistance, at least in the short term, is probably to the downside. Watching how the market reacts not only today, but tomorrow after the ECB meeting, is probably paramount here.
Longer term, I am bullish, but I do see the argument to be made for a deeper correction based on the structure of the market over the last year or so.
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