The gold market has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noisy trading in general.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think is just hanging around the $4,200 level, waiting to see what happens on Friday.
After all, Friday is nonfarm payrolls in the United States, giving us a bit of a heads-up and opening up the possibility of the market having more information on where the Federal Reserve may go. It is worth noting that gold has rallied a bit, only to fall back.
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Major block of action just below
We are sitting on top of a major consolidation area that extends down to the $4,000 level. All things being equal, the market has not only resistance here, but it also has resistance closer to the $4,300 level. We are sitting on top of a major consolidation area that extends down to the $4,000 level.
Ultimately, this is a market that I do like longer term, but as long as interest rates remain elevated - and quite frankly, that is a crude oil thing - we have a situation where it is almost impossible to just see metals have a nice run higher. Mainly, traders have to worry about the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world raising rates, giving you an idea that we may be stuck in this pattern.
That being said, the $4,000 level underneath is a major floor. Anything underneath there would be horrible for gold. I think, when you look at the gold market over the longer term, another thing to perhaps pay attention to is that, around Christmas time last year, we had started to form a trend line, and it looks like we are testing that here as well.
I think this remains a huge area of confluence. We will see how this plays out. I do think Friday's announcement will have a major influence. If we get a weak jobs report, I suspect that may cool off some of the rates, and that might actually help gold. A lot of noise will be found at the 200-day EMA, though.
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