Bearish view
Top Regulated Brokers
Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1280.
Add a stop-loss at 1.1450.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1450.
Add a stop-loss at 1.1280.
EUR/USD exchange rate has continued its strong downward trend and is hovering near its lowest level since June 24 this year. It retreated to 1.1367 as traders waited for the upcoming US macro numbers, including jobs, inflation, and consumer confidence. It is also waiting for some key statements from Federal Reserve officials.
US Jobs, Inflation, and Consumer Confidence Data
The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, and this weakness will be put to the test in the coming days as the US publishes important reports. The Conference Board will release the latest consumer confidence report, which will provide hints on the health of American consumers. Expectations are that consumer confidence remains low because of the elevated inflation.
The other key data to watch today will be the house price index (HPI), which will provide more information about the health of the industry. The average estimate among analysts is that it jumped by 0.1% in July from 0.0% a month earlier.
Some top Federal Reserve officials, including Austan Goolsbee, Michele Bowman, and Christopher Waller, will talk and provide hints on what to expect in the coming meetings. In the last meeting, most officials believed that the bank would need to hike interest rates in the next meetings because of the elevated inflation.
The EUR/USD pair will next react to the upcoming US macro numbers, including the ADP private payrolls and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) on Wednesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
Meanwhile, the pair will react to the upcoming European industrial, business, and consumer confidence report. Some ECB officials, like Christine Lagarde, and the head of the German Central Bank. These officials will also provide hints on what to expect from the ECB.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair has been in a strong sell-off in the past few weeks, moving from a high of 1.1708 on August 21st. It has remained below the descending trendline that links the highest swings in February, April, and August.
The pair has slipped below the 50-day moving average and is along the lower side of the Bollinger Bands indicator. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the oversold level of 30.
The pair will likely continue falling in the near term. If this happens, the pair will likely drop to the next key target at 1.1280.