Potential trades
I am a buyer on the break of the candle for Tuesday, with a stop at 178.
On a break below 177.50, I am selling, and aiming for 175 with a stop at 178.10.
The euro continues to see a lot of movement against the Japanese yen, as the yen carry trade continues to be of interest. What I find interesting is that we are setting up two potential trades.
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The euro has fallen against the Japanese yen during trading on Tuesday as we reach down toward the ¥178 level, an area that previously had been support and, more likely than not, will continue to do the same. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, mainly due to the interest rate differential and the fact that there is so much noise around Japan at the moment.
The Bank of Japan has, of course, intervened from time to time, and that has put downward pressure on the Japanese yen-denominated pairs. At this point in time, markets will continue to watch this very closely because if we do get a significant drop below the ¥178 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to the ¥176 level.
Rallies at this point in time are possible, but you will need to see rates in Europe, specifically Germany, rise. If they do, then that could send this pair looking to the ¥180 level. But ultimately, this is a market that I think remains very noisy and very choppy. The fears of Bank of Japan intervention are one of the biggest problems here. But if traders hang on to the upside here, they do get paid at the end of every day.
Death Cross
For what it's worth, we did just see the 50 day EMA breakdown below the 200 day EMA. So, questions will arise about the so-called death cross and whether or not things are breaking down. If we break below the ¥177.50 level, then I might be tempted to short. But if we break above the ¥179 level to the upside, then I might be tempted to go long for a short-term trade.
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