The New Zealand dollar has fallen quite a bit here on Wednesday, as traders are worried about the speech coming out of Jackson Hole on Friday, which could set the tone for the Fed this autumn.
NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar has fallen pretty significantly during the trading session on Wednesday as traders are looking at a market that may be a little overexposed and overextended as the 0.60 level looks to be an area of potential significant resistance.
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The dollar side is doing most of the work during the session on Wednesday as we are seeing a reaction to the Kevin Warsh speech coming on Friday, possibly being a market mover, as the core PCE came out as expected and it's worth noting that the recent FOMC meeting minutes showed that many of the voting members were still worried about persistent inflation. So maybe the dollar down story has gotten a little ahead of its skis.
At this point, the New Zealand dollar is also reacting to the weaker than expected retail sales, suggesting that maybe softer consumer demand is going to be a problem in New Zealand. They are expecting hikes out of New Zealand, not cuts, but it is still a fluid situation, and it is still favoring the United States as far as the interest rate differential is concerned.
Technical Pullback and Friday Fed Risk
When I look at this chart, I see the 0.59 level as a potential destination if we do in fact get a pullback. I don't necessarily think that this is the beginning of the end for the New Zealand dollar or anything like that, but it is worth noting that we pulled back a bit significantly during the day after stopping for 3 days.
It may just be that we've reached the top of the overall range that the market is comfortable with, and with Kevin Warsh giving that speech on Friday, there may be traders out there a bit nervous to be on the wrong side of the reaction.
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