Bearish view
Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 60,000.
Add a stop-loss at 66,000.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 66,000.
Add a stop-loss at 60,000.
Bitcoin price has remained on edge this month as demand among investors has waned amid the ongoing stock market rally. The BTC/USD pair dropped to 63,043, its lowest level since August 3rd.
Bitcoin has fallen because of the ongoing stock market comeback, with top indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones hitting their all-time highs. Some of the most actively-traded stocks like SanDisk and Micron have also bounced back from their lowest levels in July.
The soaring stock market means that crypto investors are moving to equities, especially now that most crypto exchanges have launched tokenized stocks. This trend explains why spot Bitcoin ETFs have not had substantial inflows this month.
Additionally, Bitcoin is struggling as US bond yields remain at an elevated level. The 30-year yield remains above 5%, while the 2-year and 10-year yields have jumped to over 4% this year.
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Meanwhile, odds that the Senate will pass the CLARITY Act this year. Senate Majority Thune has hinted that he will table the act in September after the recess. Despite this, odds that the bill will be passed and signed into law remain thin.
Democrats insist that the bill should have provisions barring Donald Trump and his family members from issuing tokens. The urgency of this provision rose after it emerged that he made over $2 billion last year.
The next main catalyst for Bitcoin will come from Strategy, the biggest Bitcoin holder in the world. Michael Saylor and the team will reveal the number of Bitcoin that the company sold last week.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart reveals that the BTC/USD pair has been under pressure in the past few months and is now trading at the lowest level since August 3rd. It has slumped below the 50-day moving average.
Most notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50 and is pointing downwards. Other top oscillators like the MACD and the Stochastic Oscillator have continued falling.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, potentially to the key support level of 60,000. A move above the 50-day moving average level of 65,000 will invalidate the bearish outlook.
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