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AUD/USD Forecast: Holds 50-Day EMA as Fed Rate Pause Hopes Persist

By Christopher Lewis
Senior Technical Analyst

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for tra...

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The Aussie dollar has been choppy early on Thursday, as we continue to see short-term traders in this market. The overall direction is higher, but within a longer-term range at the moment.

AUD/USD

The Aussie dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as we are hanging around the 0.7050 level. The market had previously tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday, but gave back the gains, and now the question is: can we get any type of momentum going from this area?

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Ultimately, the 50-day EMA sits underneath at the 0.7019 level as a bit of a floor, but I also recognize that the 0.71 level, at least in the short term, has been a bit resistant. If we can break above there, we could go looking to the 0.7150 level. All things being equal, this is a market that continues to favor the Australian dollar, and the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the overall risk appetite and perhaps the commodity markets such as gold, copper, aluminum, and others.

AUD/USD Forecast 14/08: Holds 50-Day EMA

Fed Expectations and Range Consolidation

The Federal Reserve is starting to see betting that they will not be raising rates as aggressively as once thought, and that works against the US dollar, but whether or not this actually plays out longer term remains to be seen. We are basically in the middle of an overall consolidation area between 0.69 at the bottom and 0.7150 at the top. Ultimately, this is a grinding pair.

Short-term traders continue to go back and forth in it, so if you are looking to scalp, this might be your market. It's been pretty quiet, but steady, and that's probably the best way to describe the Aussie at this point in time.

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Senior Technical Analyst
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

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