Natural Gas
The natural gas market has fallen significantly during the trading week as we ended up breaking through the $3 level on Friday. This suggests that we have more negativity ahead of us, but quite frankly, I think the downside is somewhat limited.
This time of year, is typically rather range-bound for natural gas. It ends up being somewhat negative, and rallies still are to be looked at with significant suspicion, as the demand for natural gas will continue to be very weak. After all, unless there is some type of heat wave, there's no excess demand for electricity via natural gas. Natural gas is used to heat homes later in the year in America, so the cycle then flips to bullish here in a couple of months. Right now, it still looks very range bound.
WTI Crude Oil
The light sweet crude oil market had a positive week. Part of what we had seen is a reaction to US strikes on Iran, but we've since seen those gains given back up, and this suggests to me that we just don't have anywhere to be quite yet.
Ultimately, I do think that we're trying to find the summer range. The summer range could find a floor near $68, but we'll have to wait and see. I think another week or two of sideways action is probably best here.
Gold
The gold market fell during most of the week, but the most important thing that I believe has happened is that we have validated the $4,000 level as a support area, and the market has bounced significantly from there.
Whether we continue to bounce remains to be seen but keep an eye on the US dollar. If it starts to weaken, that could provide a bit of a boost here.
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EUR/USD
The euro fell for the week but has managed to hang on to the 1.14 level for support. At this point, I think it still looks a little bit weak, but the next candlestick or two will tell the full story.
If we do break down from here, I would anticipate challenging the 1.12 level, which is a measured move from a bearish flag on the daily chart and where the 200-week EMA currently sits.
USD/CAD
The US dollar has gone back and forth during most of the week against the Canadian dollar as we continue to see a lot of questions asked of Canada itself. We are in an area that previously had been important for a major breakdown back in the beginning of 2025, so it makes a certain amount of sense that we are struggling to get clarity to the upside here.
A pullback from here does make potential sense, and I think you would probably find buyers all the way back down to the 1.40 level underneath, which, for me at least, is a major floor as it has a lot of market memory attached to it. To the upside, we could be looking at 1.45, but we need some type of catalyst.
USD/MXN
The US dollar has gone back and forth against the Mexican peso for the week as we continue to hang around the 17.50 level. This is a level that previously had been a significant resistance, so I think it is worth watching.
If we were to break above the high of this past week, it could send the US dollar looking to the 18 level. But keep in mind that the interest rate differential still favors Mexico, so I actually prefer to short this pair. I just don't have the price action to get me doing it quite yet.
Silver
Silver plunged below the crucial $60 level during the week but then turned around to show signs of life again, and now I think we're just hanging on by our fingernails to the $60 level.
But I anticipate that sooner or later, silver probably breaks down unless we see lower rates in the United States or perhaps the US dollar weakening. As things stand right now, if we were to break down below the $57 level, I think it opens up a move to $50.
GBP/USD
The British pound rallied for the week but continues to struggle near the 1.3450 level, which I think probably extends as resistance to the 1.35 level.
I like the idea of perhaps trying to fade short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion, as we may find ourselves hanging out in a range for the time being.
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