Gold continues to see a lot of interest near the $4,000 level.
Gold
The gold market has rallied a bit during the trading session here on Thursday, breaking above the candlestick for the Wednesday session as the jobs number came out weaker than anticipated. This had people betting that the Federal Reserve may cut rates sooner rather than later, but really, at this point in time, I don't read too much into it because, of course, Friday is a holiday, so liquidity is a real question here.
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That being said, if we do rally from here, I think the $4,200 level could be a bit of a barrier. Signs of exhaustion in that area would be a nice selling opportunity, from what I can see. I do not have any interest whatsoever in trying to buy this market, at least not yet, but I freely admit that a move above the $4,200 level opens up the possibility of a move to the 200-day EMA.
Macro Geopolitics and Range-Bound Outlook
A breakdown below the $3,900 would change the entire outlook, and it could send this market down to the $3,500 level.
In general, I think this is a market that remains very confusing to trade, and I think it is focusing more or less on the short term, mainly due to the fact that we've just had a massive move and now traders are just trying to sort out the Middle East. There are a lot of different things going on, and I do think that there is a certain amount of hesitation to get overly exposed in such a chaotic environment.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think will be choppy; it will be noisy, but I'll be looking to fade short-term rallies as they show exhaustion. I'm not looking for big moves here; I think we stay in a range. Friday, of course, will be limited in its scope of trading.
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