Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
Gold's overall trend: Bearish over the medium term with a short-term bullish correction.
Today's Gold Support Points: $4,145 – $4,100 – $4,060 per ounce.
Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4200 – $4280 – $4330 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
Bullish Scenario: Buy gold from the support level of $4090 with a target of $4300 and a stop loss at $4040.
Bearish Scenario: Sell gold from the resistance level of $4220 with a target of $4150 and a stop loss at $4290.
Note: These recommendations are suitable for medium-to-long-term traders, provided there is strict adherence to capital and risk management
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Daily Technical Analysis of Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD)
Gold prices started the new trading week with an upward price gap, reaching the resistance level of $4,200 per ounce—its highest level in two weeks—before facing renewed selling pressure that caused it to settle around the $4,145 per ounce mark. According to gold trading platforms, the prices of the yellow metal are at the beginning of an upward correction that lacks strong momentum to alter the overall bearish outlook on the daily chart.
Gold prices continued to recover on the back of US Dollar weakness following lower-than-expected results from the US jobs report. Across top trusted trading platforms, gold had risen by more than 2% in the final week, snapping a four-week losing streak after weaker-than-expected US jobs data eased concerns over persistent inflation and high interest rates.
In this regard, traders now see a 56% probability of a US interest rate hike this coming September, down from over 60% prior to the data release, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates are typically a positive driver for gold, as it is a non-yielding asset.
This week, the FOMC meeting minutes will be closely monitored for clearer signals regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. Investors will look for clues indicating whether other committee members share Kevin Warsh's hawkish view, or if there is a shift toward a more dovish stance. This will trigger a strong reaction in US Dollar performance, and consequently, gold prices.
Technical Outlook for Gold
The technical outlook for gold prices on the daily timeframe confirms the bearish bias, despite short-term recovery attempts that await stronger catalysts for a confirmed reversal. Settling above the $4,200 per ounce resistance level will be crucial for buyers, as it would push technical indicators into the neutral zones that separate buyer and seller control.
Regarding the movement of technical indicators, we note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) settling near the 45 level reflects a decline in selling pressure without giving buyers full control. Meanwhile, the positive turn in the MACD indicator points to a potential continuation of the recovery if prices succeed in breaking through key resistance levels. At the same time, prices are still trading below the 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages, keeping the medium-term trend tilted downward despite the recent improvement in momentum.
Conversely, the bearish scenario will gain strength if sellers drag gold prices back down toward the $4,060 per ounce support level and below. I expect the yellow metal's prices to stabilize within their current ranges until the market reacts to the release of the US FOMC minutes.
Trading Advice:
Gold prices are at the beginning of a recovery while awaiting stronger and sustained catalysts. No matter how strongly you believe in buying or selling, strict risk management is absolutely essential.
Ready to trade today’s Gold prediction? Here’s a list of some of the best XAU/USD brokers to check out.