EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
Overall Trend: Remaining bearish with short-term recovery attempts.
Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1400 – 1.1360 – 1.1290
Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1480 – 1.1540 – 1.1620
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1370 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1320
Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1500 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1560
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today
The EUR/USD pair continues to trade below the downward trendline extending since early May, signaling ongoing negative pressure on the general trend. While the pair attempts to stage a bullish corrective move, traders are waiting to see if this rebound will present a fresh opportunity for sellers to resume the broader downtrend.
Across top trading platforms, the pair stabilized around the 1.1430 level at the time of writing, holding near the gains triggered by the lower-than-expected US jobs report, which weakened the greenback against other major currencies.
Technically, the first significant resistance zone is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.1435, followed by the 50% level at 1.1470. These levels could see a return of selling pressure, especially given their proximity to the descending trendline.
If the upward correction continues, the pair could target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1500, and then the 100% level at 1.1625, which coincides with the recent high. This makes it a pivotal resistance zone that could determine whether the rebound remains a mere correction or transforms into a stronger bullish reversal.
If these levels succeed in limiting gains, the EUR/USD pair is likely to resume its downward trend, targeting the 1.1320 level, with the possibility of new lows if selling pressure intensifies. Conversely, a break above key Fibonacci levels could open the way for a broader upward move towards the moving averages.
Currently, the technical picture for the EUR/USD pair remains biased towards sellers, with the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) trading below the 200-day SMA, a clear indication of a continued medium-term downtrend. The widening gap between the two averages reflects the increasing strength of negative momentum and reinforces the likelihood that any upward rebound will quickly lose momentum.
Top Regulated Brokers
Technically, the Stochastic oscillator has also risen from oversold territory to approach overbought territory, suggesting that upward momentum is gradually losing strength. If the indicator reverses downwards from these levels, it could be an early sign of a return to selling dominance and a resumption of downward pressure.
Conversely, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues its upward trend, but it has not yet reached overbought territory, meaning there is limited room for further gains. However, its approach to this area could signal a slowdown in the positive momentum in the coming period, potentially giving sellers an opportunity to regain control of price movements.
Upcoming Factors Influencing the EUR/USD Price
Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's (FOMC) meeting minutes later this week, which could serve as the primary driver for the EUR/USD direction over the coming sessions. If the minutes reveal that the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance on interest rates, the US Dollar could reclaim its momentum—despite last week's soft Non-Farm Payrolls data—thereby boosting the chances for a resumption of the pair's downtrend.
Fundamentally, sustained market bets on higher-for-longer US interest rates could limit the Euro's ability to maintain an extended rally, even if the pair experiences short-term technical rebounds. Investors will also continue to monitor any remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, particularly as expectations for interest rate cuts over the coming months have scaled back.
Trading Advice:
The Euro is in the early stages of recovery, awaiting stronger and more sustained catalysts. Regardless of your conviction to buy or sell, strict risk management is essential.
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