Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 67,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 60,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 60,000.
- Add a stop-loss 67,000.
The BTC/USD pair drifted upward for the second consecutive day as traders embraced a risk-on sentiment after the US and Iran paused their attacks. Bitcoin rose to $64,500, a few points above last week’s low of $63,650.
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Bitcoin Price Rises as Risk-On Sentiment Prevails
The BTC/USD pair rose slightly as traders rotated back to risky assets after the US and Iran paused their attacks during the weekend. According to the New York Times, the president is concerned about the falling stockpiles of US patriot missiles. He is also under pressure as his approval ratings fall and as energy prices jump.
Trump is also being pushed to reach a deal by key US allies in the Middle East like Qatar and Saudi Arabia. As a result, oil prices retreated modestly, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling to $85 from last week’s high of $93. Brent, the global benchmark, dropped to $85 from last week’s high of $100.
Still, Bitcoin faces some potential risks ahead. First, Trump and Iran may decide to restart their strikes this week, which will lead to higher energy prices and inflation. Second, the Federal Reserve will likely deliver a hawkish interest rate decision this week. The rising bond yields suggest that the Fed will hike interest rates later this year.
Third, there are concerns about the rising spot Bitcoin ETF outflows. After experiencing inflows for eight consecutive days, these funds experienced outflows for two consecutive days last week. That is a sign that demand among institutions has started falling.
There is also a risk that Strategy and other Bitcoin treasury companies will sell their coins. Strategy sold coins worth over $200 million earlier this month, while MARA Holdings has sold over 20,000 coins to fund its AI ambitions.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in an uptrend in the past few weeks. It has jumped from the year-to-date low of 57,768 to a high of 67,131. It has formed an ascending channel and is now hovering at its lower side.
Bitcoin has settled at the 25-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stalled at the neutral point of 50.
Therefore, the coin will likely bounce back as bulls target the upper side of the channel at 67,130, its highest point in July. A move below the lower side of the channel will point to more downside.
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