Bitcoin continues to be very noisy overall, and Monday wasn’t any different. At this point, we are at an inflection point, as the trend is under threat.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin continues to be very noisy during the trading session on Monday, as we had plunged quite significantly, but since then, we have seen Bitcoin rally quite nicely. The question at this point is whether or not we have enough momentum to continue to the upside, and while it certainly looks like that on Monday, I don't know how long this rally lasts. I'm still not completely convinced, but it is worth noting that the $60,000 level is an area that a lot of people will be watching very closely.
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If we were to break down below the $58,000 level, it could open up the possibility of further declines, maybe down to the $50,000 level, where I think there would be a lot of interest based on the large round psychologically significant figure.
Technical Resistance and Macro Volatility
To the upside, we have the 50-day EMA offering a little bit of resistance in the $65,700 level. If we can break above there, then the market is likely to go looking to the $72,000 level. I think we have a lot of volatility ahead of us, as we have certainly seen on Monday, but until we get some type of clarity with risk appetite, I think Bitcoin is going to be a difficult market to trade.
That doesn't mean that you can't buy it for a longer-term position, but as far as short-term trading is concerned, I think Bitcoin will be prone to these violent retracements.
Ultimately, if we can break above the $67,500 level, I think you will see a flood of money heading into here, but all things being equal, even if that happens, you are still pretty early on a potential trend change, so I think you still would have to be somewhat hesitant about putting a huge position on at this juncture. I have no interest in getting too big at the moment. I think we are at a major inflection point.
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