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BTC/USD Forecast: Is Bitcoin About to Fall Apart? Several Things to Watch.

By Christopher Lewis
Senior Technical Analyst

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for tra...

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The Bitcoin market fell right away on Tuesday, as we continue to see crypto get punished. The question is whether or not it will ever be used in the real world, as there has been so little in the way of adoption. Is Wall Street starting to question this problem?

BTC/USD Forecast 01/07: Is BTC About to Fall Apart? (Chart)

Bitcoin Gets Hammered. What now?

The Bitcoin market fell right off the bat on Tuesday to threaten the overall area of support. The question now is whether or not Bitcoin is going to continue to struggle and whether or not it is on the precipice of some type of breakdown, or if the buyers are ready to return.

The overall market for Bitcoin has been a bit of a disaster over the last several months, but the downtrend has seen the occasional bounce. In general, though, things look a bit different at the moment as the bounce has fallen flat over the last couple of days. During the Tuesday session, it looks as if there is more conviction to the downside. This is how things have been for a while and continues to be so far.

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Market Behavior Looks Miserable

The behavior of Bitcoin has been pretty miserable over the last couple of months, but the action on short-term charts during the session on Tuesday really got aggressive as there was an initial attempt to recover near the $58,200 level, but it was repulsed at the $59,000 level to send Bitcoin lower again.

Keep in mind that there was fanfare that Wall Street was getting involved several months ago. However, it is worth noting that it is the job of Wall Street to sell you things. They have said to the retail trader, “Here, hold my bags.” This isn’t the first time this has happened over the last several decades.

Institutional Interest and the US Dollar Matter

The question, of course, is going to be whether or not institutions look at this as a potential buying opportunity. One would have to assume that sooner or later there will be interest, but the risk at the moment is that the market might get out of hand. Quite frankly, the strengthening US dollar continues to work against Bitcoin, but there's also a question as to whether or not Bitcoin has any real use in the world.

Quite frankly, we haven't seen anything that comes close to a must-have type of situation. We have been hearing stories about how Bitcoin was going to change the world for several years now, but those have just been stories. The alternative scenario is perhaps that traders and, more importantly, institutions try to get away from the dollar, and that could help Bitcoin. This would take some type of external pressure. I do not think it comes from Bitcoin itself, but rather something to do with the US dollar.

Watch the USD

The thing that you will have to watch more than anything else is probably going to be the value of the US dollar against multiple currencies, as well as interest rate markets, which don't presently favor Bitcoin. Furthermore, adoption is something that is always an open-ended question, but really at this point in time, it's almost impossible to find any actual use. This crypto winter is really starting to pick up steam, and I think people are going to be very cautious.

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Senior Technical Analyst
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

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