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Gold Analysis: Will Gold Break Below $4,000 After a Failed Recovery?

By Mahmoud Abdallah
Technical Analyst

Mahmoud Abdullah is a financial markets analyst who has been covering global market movements for several years, with a particular focus on forex trading, commodities, indices, and macroeconomic price action analysis. He has been analyzing global financial markets since 2006 and currently serves as the Chief Analyst and Editor-in-Chief of the well-known website Traders Up. Mahmoud Abdullah combines technical analysis with macroeconomic context t...

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Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:

  • Gold's overall trend: Remains Bearish.

  • Today's Gold Support Points: $4,000 – $3,960 – $3,870 per ounce.

  • Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4,080 – $4,120 – $4,200 per ounce.

Today's Gold Trading Signals:

  • Bullish Scenario: Buy gold from the support level of $3,960 with a target of $4,200 and a stop-loss at $3,900.

  • Bearish Scenario: Sell gold from the resistance level of $4,120 with a target of $3,970 and a stop-loss at $4,180.

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Daily Technical Analysis of Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD):

For two consecutive trading sessions, gold prices have failed to recover from the pace of their recent losses. According to the best gold trading platforms, the rebound did not exceed the resistance level of $4,096 per ounce. With sellers dominating, the precious yellow metal's prices returned to challenge the psychological support of $4,000 per ounce at the time of writing this analysis, technically setting up the trend for stronger bearish breakouts.

The continued pressure on gold prices is driven by rising US Treasury yields and a strong US Dollar, alongside fading expectations for interest rate cuts, which reduces the appeal of the non-yielding assets.

According to the technical outlook for the gold trend on the daily timeframe, the stronger downward movement so far and the breach of the $4,000 per ounce support barrier could increase selling pressure, pushing technical indicators toward oversold levels. This might reinforce negative momentum and push the RSI back into oversold territory. Additionally, the MACD indicator shows a clear bearish bias.

Conversely, breaking the $4,200 per ounce resistance level over the same timeframe would be significant for establishing a counter-ascending channel.

Overall, precious metals prices are heading towards their largest quarterly losses ever, retreating from their peak in late January 2016 due to uncertainty surrounding the path of interest rates and investors' abandonment of high-risk assets.

Through the best-trusted trading platforms, gold futures fell, recording a record decline in the second quarter of $625.30. In general, gold lost more than $500 per ounce, approximately 12%, in June alone, heading toward its worst monthly performance since June 2013.

Trading Advice:

Gold trading may remain under selling pressure until the reaction to upcoming major economic releases. Regardless of your conviction to buy or sell, strict risk management is absolutely essential amid the ongoing state of market uncertainty.

تحليل الذهب اليوم: هل يكسر الذهب مستوى 4000 دولار بعد فشل التعافي؟

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Technical Analyst
Mahmoud Abdullah is a financial markets analyst who has been covering global market movements for several years, with a particular focus on forex trading, commodities, indices, and macroeconomic price action analysis. He has been analyzing global financial markets since 2006 and currently serves as the Chief Analyst and Editor-in-Chief of the well-known website Traders Up. Mahmoud Abdullah combines technical analysis with macroeconomic context to understand market trends, paying close attention to price behavior, momentum, support and resistance levels, risk management, and evaluating high-probability market opportunities.

As seen on: mahmoud.a@dailyforex.com

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