Crypto market analysts say increasing altcoin performance, a rising altseason index and a strengthening TOTAL2 macro structure are early signs that the market could be “quietly” entering an altseason in 2026.
Altcoin market shows early signs of recovery
Crypto analyst Darkfost said the recent crypto market drawdown fueled by macroeconomic uncertainties surrounding the ongoing US and Israel-Iran war saw the altcoin sector correct by more than 50%.
Top Regulated Brokers
As a result, nearly 83% of altcoins are now trading below their 200-day moving average (200-DMA), “a key technical indicator closely monitored by investors,” the analyst said in a recent Quicktake post.
Meanwhile, TOTAL3, which tracks the market capitalization of altcoins excluding Ethereum, has lost nearly $520 billion, falling to approximately $670 billion, levels last seen in November 2024.
“This clearly reflects the bearish environment in which altcoins remain trapped,” Darkfost said, adding:
“However, the most interesting opportunities often emerge during periods of extreme pessimism rather than when nearly 90% of altcoins are trading above their 200-DMA, as was the case in March and December 2024.”
Performance of altcoins on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
It’s worth mentioning that it’s still too early to call for an altseason as the metric remains below the levels seen in mid-2025 and Q4 2024, when most altcoins traded between 60-80% above their 200-DMA.
Additional data from CryptoQuant reveals rising activity on centralized exchanges (CEX), which is another sign of increasing momentum in altcoins.
The chart below shows that the altcoin trading volume, excluding the five largest cryptocurrencies, has increased steadily over the past two months. This is evidenced by the appearance of an Altcoin Volume Increasing Trend (yellow bars), which occurred when the 30-day MA for altcoin trading volume crossed above its 365-day MA.
Historically, when this metric flashes yellow, it signals a clear rotation of capital from major caps into mid and low-cap altcoins.
If this momentum is sustained, it could serve as a strong confirmation that a broader altcoin rally is underway.
CEX volume ratio vs. Top 5 crypto. Source: CryptoQuant
Note that the last time the yellow bars appeared was in April 2025, preceding a nearly 260% rally in ETH price while the total altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) increased by 112%.
Altcoin season “is coming”
Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal has moved back into Altcoin Season territory at 86%, its highest level since September 2025. The signal tracks relative performance between Bitcoin and a broad basket of altcoins to determine whether the market is in a "Bitcoin Season" or "Altcoin Season."
“The typical version of this print has alts running while BTC stays bid,” Glassnode said in a Monday post on X, adding:
“Currently, we see alts running out of sellers after nearly two years and BTC drawing down aggressively.”
However, the on-chain data provider noted that unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin’s recent weakness has played a larger role in driving the signal. As a result, van de Poppe remains cautiously optimistic about the near future for altcoins.
The Altcoin Cycle Signal. Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, the 90-day AltSeason Index, which tracks whether a majority of altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the last three months, is also bottoming out.
“The Altcoin Season Index has started reversing from the bottom and has reclaimed 50 after getting nuked into Bitcoin Season territory,” analyst CryptoThannos said in a Monday post on X, adding:
“Altcoin market cap absorbed the sell pressure and refused to make new lows. Now, the rotation game begins. $ALTSZN is inevitable.”
Altcoin season index. Source: CoinMarketCap
Although the index has been recovering, its value of 50 means only 50% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days. This falls short of the 75% "altseason" threshold, according to Blockchaincenter.
These include LAB, BCAP and DEXE, which are up 8,500%, 373% and 212% over the last three months, compared to Bitcoin’s (BTC) 11.5% losses.
Top 50 Performance over the 90 days. Source: Blockchaincenter
Meanwhile, on-chain analyst BladeDefi argues that Bitcoin’s dominance has peaked, an occurrence that has historically marked the beginning of every altseason. He added:
“Biggest altseason is coming.”
Altcoins show signs of bottoming out
Data from TradingView showed TOTAL2 — the cumulative market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin — bouncing off a multi-year ascending trend line that has supported its price action since the 2022 bear market drawdown.
The chart below suggests that TOTAL2’s breakout could mirror the late 2023 breakout and rise as high as $3 trillion, adding to the inevitability of the altseason.
TOTAL2/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
CoinvoTrading chart showed the ETH/USD pair trading below the lower trend line of a multi-year ascending triangle wedge that has defined its price action since late 2017.
“Last time $ETH broke below the Golden Triangle was during the Covid-19 crash,” the analyst said in a June 22 X post, adding:
“What followed was a huge altcoin season rally to the top of the triangle.”
ETH/USD three-week chart. Source: X/CoinvoTrading
The chart above shows that Ether’s price has once again dropped below the lower trendline of the triangle, an occurrence that “historically, that means a rally,” the analyst added.
Note that since Ether is the biggest altcoin by market capitalization, a rally in its price usually carries along all the other altcoins, ushering the market into an “altseason.”
Ready to trade our analysis of altcoins? Here’s our list of the best MT4 crypto brokers worth checking out.