The US dollar gapped higher against the South African Rand at the beginning of the session, dropped a bit, and then turned around to show signs of strength again as although interest rates in America have rolled over a little bit during the trading session, we still find most currency pairs including this one somewhat sideways and consolidating.
This suggests to me that market participants just don't really have any idea as to what to do at this point.
Over the longer term, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that is facing the 50-day EMA as resistance near the 16.60 level and that is an area that if we can break above, I think a lot of traders will start to jump into again. With this, I am somewhat cautious about going long though, despite the fact that you can make an argument where it might work out. At that point, it probably goes looking to the 200-day EMA. The interest rate differential favors South Africa and that is something that you cannot forget either.
Technical resistance and energy concerns
But I think there is a significant amount of support near the 16.20 level, maybe the 16.25 level and that will continue to keep the USD/ZAR market very well supported. Anything below there, then the dollar probably goes looking to the 15.80 level where we had visited in February.
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I think ultimately one of the things that might be a little bit of a wildcard here is the fact that the energy situation around the world continues to be a massive problem and that most certainly will be a problem for the South African Rand, which of course the country of South Africa is a net importer of energy. Ultimately, expect a lot of choppiness but I am looking for a selling opportunity, I just don't see it quite yet.
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