NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar has been all over the place during the week and I think that's the main takeaway. We see the 0.58 level as support and the 0.5950 level above offers resistance.
All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy, but with interest rates dropping a bit towards the end of the week, it could give a bit of life to the New Zealand dollar and give it an ability to rally from here. If we break down below the 0.58 level, I will anticipate another 100-point drop.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has also been very choppy. We are hanging around the 0.7150 level. That is an area that previously had been resistance, and it should be supported at this point. If we can break above the high of the candlestick from the week, then it could open up the possibility of a move to the 0.7275 level.
If we break down below the low of the candlestick, then it opens up the possibility of a drop-down to the 0.70 level. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar continues to be a bit stronger than many other currencies against the US dollar. So, I think buying dips probably ends up being the way forward, but it is going to remain very choppy at this point.
Gold
The gold market has been very volatile this week as well, and with interest rates in America remaining fairly high, it is difficult for gold to continue to grind to the upside. Ultimately, I think this is a market that will pay close attention to the $4,600 level. And if we can break above there, then it could open up the possibility of a move to the $4,800 level.
If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the week, it opens up the possibility of a drop towards the $4,300 level. All things being equal, I think this market continues to move with rates. If rates in America go higher, gold goes lower, at least generally speaking.
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USD/CAD
The US dollar has spent the entire week rallying against the Canadian dollar, and I think that will probably continue to be the case. I anticipate a move towards the 1.39 level eventually, but it will more likely than not end up being somewhat choppy.
This is a market that is somewhat range-bound most of the time anyway, so that would not be a surprise. Watch interest rates in America, because if they start to take off to the upside again, that will give this more firepower. Quite frankly, the Canadian economy is a bit sluggish, and I think that continues to favor the US dollar, at least in this scenario.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin was slightly negative for the week, but there is still plenty of support underneath, and I think this is a situation where, sooner or later, the market probably bounces. After all, we have seen a nice recovery for some time, and Bitcoin did fairly well despite the fact that we had seen a war break out. So, with that being the case, I think if we can see the market turn around, the market probably goes looking to the $84,000 level.
The market is likely to continue to be very noisy. I think this is a market that is also going to be one that you will have to be very patient with. Institutional money continues to flow into the ETFs that follow Bitcoin, so that might be worth watching.
USD/MXN
The US dollar has been all over the place against the Mexican peso during the week, and I think we are just kind of hanging out around the 17.33 level. The 17.50 level above is significant resistance, with the 17.00 level underneath offering support. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, and I do think that it's likely that we will continue to watch interest rates to see how this behaves.
Keep in mind that the Mexican peso has a higher interest rate than the United States dollar. So, with that being said, I think you have to look at this as one that you're looking for signs to short this market when I get opportunities after long wicks to the upside on shorter timeframes.
EUR/USD
The euro has been slightly negative during the trading week, testing the 50-week EMA, but we have been very choppy in general. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of questions asked about the interest rate differential. And I think the 1.16 level is essentially a magnet for price, and I would anticipate further grinding back and forth in this market.
We are starting to drift towards the lower end of the larger consolidation, which means we could drop to the 1.14 level. Energy concerns in Europe could be the main driver here. However, if we rally, we could find ourselves trying to get back to the 1.1750 level.
NASDAQ 100
The Nasdaq 100 continues to find buyers on dips, and this week was just more of the same. At this point, I think we are trying to get to the 30,000 level. We are in the midst of earnings season, and of course, the AI trade has taken hold of the markets again.
Ultimately, I think this is a market that you're looking for dips to take advantage of. Interest rates rising, of course, could be negative for the market, but quite frankly, it seems as if the Nasdaq 100 is willing to look through a lot at this point. 30,000 almost seems like an inevitability at this stage.
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