Bitcoin has shown itself to be a little bit negative early on Thursday, but that's not a huge surprise.
On Wednesday we had pierced the 200-day EMA and ended up forming a shooting star.
While that is a negative candlestick pattern, I don't necessarily look to short this market because quite frankly, we have a scenario where traders have been pushing Bitcoin higher regardless of interest rates or the war or anything else that should at least in theory cause problems for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin breaking above the 200-day EMA and staying above there would be an obvious bullish sign. It could open up a move towards the $84,000 level. That is an area that previously had been support and resistance going further back and now I think that makes a nice juicy target.
Institutional Flows and Market Volatility
With non-farm payroll numbers coming out on Friday, it does make a certain amount of sense that maybe Bitcoin hesitates. Institutional flows have been positive into the ETFs and that in and of itself probably makes Bitcoin attractive, but I also recognize that it had been beaten down so much that a bounce was almost inevitable.
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Ultimately, I think this is a market that will break out to the upside, you just have to be patient. Position sizing will be crucial obviously, and of course we also will have to watch whether or not interest rates start to spike again. Now, while it has ignored interest rates to a point, if we suddenly get vicious moves in the bond market, that will change everything. I'm bullish but I'm looking to buy on a dip.
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