EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
Overall Trend: Bearish.
Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1515 – 1.1480 – 1.1420
Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1580 – 1.1620 – 1.1680
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy Scenario:
Enter from support level 1.1460
Target: 1.1600
Stop Loss: 1.1420.
Sell Scenario:
Entry: the resistance level of 1.1620
Target: 1.1490
Stop Loss: 1.1680
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today
Renewed risk aversion, amid ambiguity regarding the resolution of the Middle East conflict after a period of relative market calm, has caused the EUR/USD pair to lose most of its recent upward rebound gains. This rebound peaked with a test of the 1.1626 resistance level before falling back to trade around the 1.1520 support level at the time of writing. I previously noted on the free trading recommendations page to sell EUR/USD from the 1.1660 resistance, and that recommendation remains valid.
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Euro Path Depends on Improved Sentiment
According to recent currency market trading, investor sentiment improved following U.S. President Donald Trump's statements mid-week, which suggested a possible withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iran within two to three weeks. He also hinted that a resolution might no longer depend on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boosting hopes for a return to normal maritime traffic once hostilities subside.
However, these hopes quickly faded. Yesterday, Trump stated that the U.S. operation is nearing its end but also pledged more decisive actions, including the possibility of strikes on power plants within the next two to three weeks. The absence of new justifications for the war has further dampened market confidence.
Amid ongoing uncertainty and rising inflation fears, markets are reconsidering their expectations for the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy path. In this regard, investors are now anticipating three interest rate hikes during 2026.
EUR/USD Technical Levels Today:
The bearish scenario for the Euro against the U.S. Dollar remains the most prominent on the daily chart. Stabilizing below the 1.1500 level supports this performance, confirmed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 45, which is below the neutral 50 line—the dividing line between bear and bull control over the trend. Additionally, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is below the 200-day SMA, supporting the continuation of the bearish correction for some time.
For a bullish scenario, the Euro must head toward the 1.1660 and 1.1800 resistance levels, respectively. The pair will continue to react to investor appetite for risk, the proximity of a resolution to the Middle East conflict, and the path of central bank policies in the coming months.
Currently, if optimism persists regarding the possibility of de-escalation, continued weakness in the US dollar could support the euro, given the inverse relationship between the two currencies. On the other hand, if peace hopes begin to fade and the US dollar strengthens, the euro could face renewed pressure.
Trading Advice:
Dear TradersUp trader, we still prefer selling the euro against the US dollar on any significant price rise.
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