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USD/ZAR Analysis: Sharp Decline Now Bouncing Up Against Key Support

By Robert Petrucci

Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services....

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The USD/ZAR has fought lower and is near important long-term support boundaries, as the 17.13000 level is being wagered on this morning and providing technical speculators with plenty of considerations.

USD/ZAR Analysis 12/11: Sharp Decline (Chart)

The USD/ZAR has fought its way lower the past handful of days, and has reestablished long-term lows around the 17.13000 vicinity as a wide spread is being exhibited this morning. The USD/ZAR was traversing a high of nearly 17.56000 on the 5th of November, but the past week has seen a strong reversal lower that has been able to make support levels vulnerable.

However, in trading Monday up until today the USD/ZAR has struggled to break below the 17.13000 level with sustained value. Yet the USD/ZAR has also not demonstrated a solid reversal higher and has in fact kept the lower realms of its value in sight. The last time the USD/ZAR traverse its current values was in November of 2024. The 17.10700 was briefly challenged on late Monday.

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Behavioral Sentiment and the USD/ZAR

The speculative question now facing day traders is if the USD/ZAR can break lower in a sustained manner. The currency pair traversed lower values a little over one year ago when the 17.07000 saw momentary tests. Day traders should certainly not get overly ambitious about the ability of the USD/ZAR to move massively below its current values, but optimists may look at values in January of 2023 and believe there is an ability to trade below 17.00000.

Certainly the USD/ZAR has seen positive lower momentum regarding the stronger value of the South African Rand, but within its current depths financial institutions might begin to question fair market value based on mid-term outlooks economically. The U.S Federal Reserve has not given a clear indication if it is going to lower its Federal Funds Rate in December and big players do not seem to be in a hurry to wager on the Fed’s decision.

Solid Move Lower in the USD/ZAR and Potential

Speculators need to be careful in the current USD/ZAR terrain. Looking for more momentum lower via the existing trend may seem worthwhile and logical, but perhaps another round of positive impetus is needed.

  • The U.S will vote on the current government shutdown later today in Congress.
  • If the shutdown is ended, this could fuel additional risk appetite in the broad markets.
  • Until vote results are counted however, it may be wise to believe choppy action in the USD/ZAR is going to continue that tests current tight values being exhibited.
  • The USD/ZAR has certainly shown an ability to trend lower, but can greater depths be attained?
  • Conservative speculators may want to wait for some upside to develop and then look for selling opportunities.
  • In the wake of the U.S government shutdown vote results later today, the USD/ZAR is likely to become volatile.

USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 17.14500

Current Support: 17.13000

High Target: 17.18700

Low Target: 17.10600

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Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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