- The US dollar continues to weaken against the Mexican peso, with short-term rallies presenting selling opportunities.
- Technical levels at 18.20 and 18.50 are key, while the peso remains supported by interest rate differentials and strong U.S.-linked exports.
The U.S. dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking below the downtrend line that previously had been resistance and had been broken through, confirming a so-called throwover. That being said, trend lines can be drawn just about anywhere in a chart if you really try, so it may not matter much.
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18.20 is Possible Eventually
All things being equal, when looking at this market, there’s a situation where the U.S. dollar could drop to the 18.20 Mexican peso level, an area that previously had been support. If it breaks down below there, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the 18.00 Mexican peso level.
Short-term rallies at this point end up being selling opportunities, especially near the 18.50 level, where not only is there a round figure but also the 50-day EMA. The 18.50 level has been both support and resistance recently, so market memory should come into play there as well. Keep in mind that the interest rate differential favors the Mexican peso, and therefore, traders get paid to be short in this market.
All things being equal, this market likely continues to see more downward pressure, especially if the U.S. economy remains strong, mainly because the Mexican economy is so reliant on exports to the U.S. It’s a lot like Canada in that sense; however, Mexico is the world’s largest exporter to the United States, making it highly sensitive to U.S. economic figures. As things stand right now, the U.S. economy still looks solid, so it makes sense that the Mexican peso continues to strengthen.
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