The USD/MXN remains within its known range via technical charts, but the value of the currency pair has seen a battle the past handful of days as reactions to U.S Fed uncertainty have caused volatility.
The USD/MXN is near the 18.59500 ratio with a wide spread being seen early this morning. In early trading yesterday the currency pair touched a high of nearly 18.76800, this after being around lows of 18.45000 on Monday of this week. The USD/MXN was traversing the 18.39500 vicinity around the time the U.S Federal Reserve began to make waves in the Forex market.
The volatility seen in the USD/MXN the past week has correlated to the broad Forex market. While the U.S Fed cut its interest rate by 25 basis points last Wednesday, their uncertainty expressed about its interest rate outlook for December has caused concern within financial institutions. Instead of calming investors last week the Federal Reserve instead increased cautious outlooks and that has translated into rather nervous results.
Highs Seen and Reversals Ignited
Yesterday’s early run higher in the USD/MXN was a reflection of risk adverse trading being seen globally in the aftermath of losses in U.S equity indices and a shadow lurking above markets as investors showed vulnerable tendencies. However, as yesterday progressed some calm returned and the USD/MXN did start to reverse lower, this as U.S equity indices were able to turn in a positive result.
Attitudes in the financial markets still remains jittery. Behavioral sentiment for the near-term is likely to remain tentative. Early morning action in the USD/MXN around the current value can still be viewed technically as being within the higher elevations of its mid-term value. The last time the USD/MXN saw sustained trading above the 18.60000 was in the second week of September. Yes, the currency pair has been above this mark occasionally since then, but technically most of the trading has been towards lower ratios.
Near-Term Outlook and Nervous Conditions
Day traders may be tempted to believe the USD/MXN is too high and they might be proven correct via the mid-term. However, timeframes are not always polite regarding the results of currency pairs when values are being wagered upon. The near-term may continue to present choppy conditions to USD/MXN traders.
- Looking for lower values in the USD/MXN may be the stronger sentiment today, but it should be done carefully.
- The Federal Reserve continues to work in the dark because of the U.S government shutdown.
- As an example, tomorrow’s previously scheduled Non-Farm Employment Change results will not be published.
- The Fed doesn’t have its usual economic data in which it can make concise decisions.
- Because the Fed is known to be a rather reactive instead of proactive domain, this may cause the Fed to not cut interest rates in December.
- This notion is making financial institutions nervous who had priced in a potential cut previously and is a reason for some of the momentum upwards in the USD recently.
- Choppy conditions should be prepared for with solid risk management when wagering on the USD/MXN in the near-term.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.59950
Current Support: 18.58600
High Target: 18.63800
Low Target: 18.52900
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