The past day of trading has seen the USD/MXN challenge important support around the 18.27000 vicinity, the currency pair as of this writing is near the 18.27900 ratio with a wide spread.
Since the start of trading via North American financial institutions yesterday the USD/MXN has been hovering around the 18.27500 to 18.28500 ratios rather consistently. As of this morning the currency pair is slightly below the 18.28000 level with a wide spread as the markets clearly anticipate volume to build in the coming hours.
The U.S government shutdown came to an end last night. Financial institutions clearly had leaned into a more positive outlook regarding Forex as the USD showed slight signs of weakness in the past few days. The move lower in the USD/MXN has actually built velocity since late Friday and into this Monday. The USD/MXN was trading near the 18.56000 ratio on Friday, and then traded near 18.45000 going into the weekend. With optimistic tones emerging over the weekend about a possible end to the U.S government shutdown, Monday’s trading created more selling.
Long-Term Lows in Sight and Support Questions
As of this writing the USD/MXN is now traversing values it saw in August of 2024. The currency pair remains above marks it traversed in July of 2024, and certainly well above value the USD/MXN traded in late May of 2024. The currency pair needs technical charts that are longer than one year (5 year charts will work) to consider possible landing spots for the USD/MXN via support levels.
There are no guarantees the USD/MXN will go lower. However, financial institutions may believe the currency pair has further room to move downwards. Premium risk priced into the USD/MXN since the Mexican elections in May of 2024 may now be under consideration by large traders. Day traders should not be overly ambitious, and they should use realistic targets as a goal if they want to wager on lower values developing.
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18.20000 as a Near-Term Target and Over-Confidence
Day trading always involves risk. Speculators of the USD/MXN must understand the currency pair can move fast and create price velocity in both directions.
- The trend of the USD/MXN which has moved lower the past handful of days is consistent with the broad Forex market.
- But there is a potential for financial institutions to believe the move lower has occurred too fast and now create choppy conditions.
- However with the opening of the U.S government, perhaps more risk appetite will seep into global markets and the USD which has been consistently strong in the past month and half will continue to show some signs of weakness if risk premium starts to be discounted.
- Traders should keep realistic targets in mind and not get over confident about prices below, quick hitting wagers with risk management in place are crucial.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.28700
Current Support: 18.27200
High Target: 18.33100
Low Target: 18.24300
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