- The USD/CHF pair continues to hover around the 0.81 level, showing indecision within a long-standing consolidation range.
- Support lies near 0.80, while a breakout above 0.8150 could signal a shift toward a more bullish trend.
The US dollar has gone back and forth during trading on Monday as we continue to hang around the 0.81 level.
The 0.81 levels an area that’s been both support and resistance over the last several months, so it’s not a huge surprise to see the market just hanging around in this area. Ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation where sooner or later we have to make a decision.
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But in the short term, I think the decision is going to be whether or not we can break out or stay in the consolidation that we have been in over the last several months. That will be interesting to watch, mainly due to the fact that the US dollar is very strong against everything, and we are basically at a point of inflection, not only against the Swiss franc but also other currencies as well.
Pullbacks
If we pull back, I see a significant amount of support near the 0.80 level, which is the large, round, psychologically significant figure. And of course, the 50-day EMA is sitting right there and looking to get into the picture to offer support. If we take off to the upside and break above the 0.8150 level, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 200-day EMA, which is currently near the 0.8227 level.
All things being equal, if we break above that, then we continue to go much higher. In fact, I think at that point you’re looking at a situation where the trend has changed completely, and we go much higher. Keep in mind that both these currencies are considered to be safety currencies, so therefore it tends to be a little choppier and noisier than many other currency pairs. But with the US dollar strength across the board, I think it’s only a matter of time before the Swiss franc starts to feel that pressure as well.
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