Long Trade Idea
Enter your long position between $332.37 (the intra-day high of its last bearish candlestick) and $343.17 (yesterday’s intra-day high).
Market Index Analysis
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 100, and the S&P 500 Index.
- All three indices are near fresh records, but bearish catalysts continue to accumulate.
- The Bull Bear Power Indicator of the S&P 500 turned bullish but remains well below its previous high.
Market Sentiment Analysis
Equity futures suggest a bullish open after the most extended US government shutdown ended. Still, the government noted that delayed economic reports, like NFP payrolls and inflation data, will not be released, including October’s data. More Fed officials caution against further interest rate cuts in the current environment. Markets ignore those remarks and pile into the two-tier market structure, creating more AI bubble fears. Cisco rallied after reporting earnings, and investors await Disney’s results ahead of the bell.
UnitedHealth Group Fundamental Analysis
UnitedHealth Group is a leading US health insurer and healthcare provider. UNH is the largest healthcare company by revenue and the world’s seventh-largest company by revenue.
So, why am I bullish on UNH after its post-earnings sell-off?
Revenues rose 12% to $113.2 billion, missing estimates by 0.2%, while earnings per share beat expectations by 6.2% at $2.92. Still, year by year, EPS cratered 59.2%. UNH noted rising medical costs and shrinking margins, but it upgraded its 2025 EPS outlook from $16.00 to $16.25, above estimates of $16.20, and signaled more growth in 2026. I am bullish on its rising healthcare premiums, which rose between 20% to 30% in 2025, and on its margin recovery potential.
UnitedHealth Group Fundamental Analysis Snapshot
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.67 indicates UNH is an expensive stock. By comparison, the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 30.83.
The average analyst price target for UNH is $385.40, suggesting modest upside potential with decreasing downside risk.
UnitedHealth Group Technical Analysis
Today’s UNH Signal
- The UNH D1 chart shows a price action bouncing off its horizontal support zone.
- It also shows price action trading between its ascending 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement Fan levels, with a pending breakout.
- The Bull Bear Power Indicator is bearish with an ascending trendline, nearing a bullish crossover.
- The average bullish trading volumes are higher than the average bearish trading volumes since reaching its horizontal support zone.
- UNH corrected as the S&P 500 pushed higher, a bearish trading signal, but bullish catalysts have risen.
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My Call on UnitedHealth Group
I am taking a long position in UNH between $332.37 and $343.17. Valuations are low, the return on assets and equity rank among the best in its industry, and I see a faster-than-expected margin recovery ahead, supported by the increased 2025 guidance.
- UNH Entry Level: Between $332.37 and $343.17
- UNH Take Profit: Between $449.48 and $462.97
- UNH Stop Loss: Between $278.22 and $289.21
- Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.16
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