My previous GBP/USD signal on 30th October might have produced a losing long trade from the bullish bounce at $1.3132.
Today’s GBP/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.2985 or $1.2931.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Idea
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.3033.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
GBP/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous GBP/USD forecast on 30th October that I had faith in the dominant bearish trend, so I would look for a short trade from the nearest resistance level. This was a good call as it was enough to keep you out of trouble, although the price did not reach the nearest resistance level that day. I was correct about the price falling, both on that day and since.
The picture now is strongly bearish, with the British Pound one of the weakest and the US Dollar one of the strongest currencies. The price is falling with momentum and looks like it could continue all the way own to $1.2700 – a look at a longer-term chart will show you that the price came up quickly through the current area from a base at $1.2700, so symmetry suggests we are going back down there.
With stock markets selling off, I do not see any reason to expect a decrease in flows into the US Dollar.
The bearish case is very strong and so I see the best opportunity likely to set up today as a short trade from a rejection of the nearest resistance level at $1.3033.
There may be some support at the round number of $1.3000, but I doubt it will be very significant.
My main concern is that the price won’t even retrace to $1.3033.
Anyway, I think traders should definitely only be looking to trade this pair short today, and it will likely be one of the best currency pairs to trade.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled regarding the GBP. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls forecast at 1:15pm London time, followed by ISM Services PMI at 3pm.
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