Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.13015.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3300.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3300.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3015.
The GBP/USD exchange rate remained under pressure as traders waited for the upcoming UK macro data. It was trading at 1.3130 on Thursday, down sharply from the September high of 1.3720.
UK Macro Data Ahead
The GBP/USD exchange rate remained on edge as traders waited for the upcoming UK macro data, which will come out on Thursday. Economists expect the report to show that the economy slowed from 0.3% in the second quarter to 0.2% in the third one. This growth is expected to come in at 1.4% on an annual basis.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) will also publish the latest UK goods and services data, which will show whether there is demand for goods made in the UK. The most recent data showed that the UK had a trade deficit of over £21 billion in September.
Traders..will also react to the upcoming UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers, which will also provide more information on the state of the UK economy.
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These numbers come two days after the UK published the latest jobs numbers. The report by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed that the country’s unemployment rate rose from 4.8% in August to 5% in September. This happened as the economy lost 22k jobs in September this year.
Therefore, another set of weak GDP data will likely set the stage for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). This cut will happen even as the UK economy remains in a period of stagflation, which happens when a slow economic growth is accompanied by high inflation. The most recent data showed that the country’s inflation remained at an elevated level in October as it moved further away from the BoE target of 2.0%.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the GBP/USD exchange rate has moved downwards in the past few days. It has dropped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.
The pair has moved below the Ichimoku cloud indicator, a sign that bears are in control. Also, there are signs that it has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is a common bearish continuation sign.
The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has remained under pressure as it moves below the zero line. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target this month's low of 1.3015.
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