- The euro edged higher early Thursday but remains erratic around the 50-day EMA.
- Broader weakness persists, with downside levels at 1.16–1.14 in focus unless a break above 1.17 sparks momentum in this volatile, indecisive market.
The euro rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. The 50-day EMA is sitting right here as well, and this is an area that will be watched very closely as the 50-day EMA has been important more than once. Ultimately, this is a scenario where traders will do what they can to sort out whether the uptrend is real or if we are going to continue to see negativity.
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Ultimately, this is a market where traders are just kicking around back and forth with no real idea as to what to do next.
I Still Look for 1.14 Eventually
Ultimately, this is a market that is probably reaching the 1.14 level. But I also would recognize that this is a market that will be choppy on the way down. If the market were to break down from here, the 1.16 level would be an area that could end up being a target and a barrier that, once we break through, then we go looking to the 1.15 level, followed by the 1.14 level. I have no interest in buying the euro, at least not yet, but if we were to break above the 1.17 level, then you could have a little bit of momentum coming into the picture.
This is a market that continues to be choppy and noisy. And I think that's the one thing that you’re going to have to take away from this: volatility is going to be a major driver. Nonetheless, we are still pretty weak looking from a longer-term standpoint, although there are places where the US dollar is much stronger than against the euro.
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