EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: : Bearish
- Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1470 – 1.1400 – 1.1320
- Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1600 – 1.1680 – 1.1770
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1440 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1370.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1700 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1780.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
As observed in recent performance, the EUR/USD pair is trading within a clearly defined descending trend line, respecting the downward resistance level that has capped price rises since mid-September. The Euro/Dollar recently rebounded from the support level at 1.1464, and it appears to be correcting toward the upper resistance zone.
A potential pullback from current levels could lead the EUR/USD pair back to the broken support-turned-resistance area, which now coincides with key Fibonacci retracement levels.
- The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is located at 1.1550.
- The 50% Fibonacci retracement level is located at 1.1576.
- A more substantial correction could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1602, which aligns with the descending trend line and previous consolidation zones.
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This confluence of technical factors makes the key psychological level of 1.1600 a critical resistance area that could serve as a dividing line for the downward trend. If any of the Fibonacci resistance levels hold as a ceiling, the EUR/USD pair may resume its decline towards the swing low at 1.14648 or lower, most likely targeting the psychological level of 1.1400.
The 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is below the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA), confirming that the strongest path remains bearish. Both moving averages converge with the Fibonacci levels and the broken support, forming a strong ceiling that may hinder any recovery attempts. The price is currently trading below both indicators, reinforcing the bearish structure.
Recently, on reputable trading platforms, the Stochastic oscillator has rebounded from oversold territory and is now hovering in the middle range, suggesting there is still room for the corrective bounce to extend. However, once the oscillator reaches overbought territory, selling pressure could intensify. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also trending upwards from its lower range and has room to rise before reaching overbought levels near 70. Clearly, this suggests that buyers may maintain their short-term momentum during the pullback
Trading Advice:
We advise you to anticipate more downward movement for the Euro/Dollar until factors emerge that increase investor confidence in the end of the US government shutdown, at the very least.
Factors Affecting Currency Prices
Please note that the EUR/USD pair may continue to be influenced by US economic data, despite the limited releases due to the ongoing government shutdown. Indications suggesting a possible interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December could mean further dollar depreciation, while positive results could trigger risk aversion and a dollar rally.
Today's agenda includes the announcement of the German Industrial Production rate at 9:00 AM Egypt time, followed by the announcement of Eurozone Retail Sales figures at 12:00 PM Egypt time. On the US side, the market will react to statements from several Federal Reserve policy officials.
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