- I’m watching crude oil face resistance near $60 to $62 despite a brief rally.
- With heavy global supply and persistent economic concerns, I remain cautiously bearish, favoring short-term shorts over major breakdowns.
The light sweet crude oil market has rallied a bit during the early hours on Friday to challenge the $60 level, only to break back down and show signs of hesitation. All things being equal, this is a market that has been pretty negative until recently, when there were fresh sanctions announced against Russia, but really, at the end of the day, that’s not going to change much. It has been a stick that the United States has used multiple times recently, but the Russians continue to find plenty of ways to get oil into the market, and I don’t think this ends up being any different.
Previous Support Worth Watching
There is an area between $60 and $62 that has been a rather significant support previously and should now offer resistance. We also have the 50-day EMA at the $61.35 level, so that also offers a little bit of a barrier. While I do favor shorting the market on short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion, I’m not necessarily looking at a market that is going to fall apart and break down toward the $55 level again.
If we were to break above the $62 level, that would obviously be very bullish for the crude oil market, opening up the possibility of a move to the $65 level above, where the 200-day EMA is.
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Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility, but with the massive amount of supply coming out of Russia, OPEC, and the United States, crude oil is going to have a very hard time hanging on to pricing power. That’s especially true as there are a lot of questions about tariffs, trade wars, and the global economy slowing down on the whole. So, with that, I remain bearish, but not for a big trade—just for the occasional short-term trade.
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