Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 100,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 109,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 109,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 100,000.
The BTC/USD pair has pulled back in the past few days, moving from a low of 98,935 last week to a high of 106,650, where it found substantial rejection. It was trading at 105,580 on Tuesday, still much lower than the year-to-date high of 126,200.
Bitcoin Price Rises Amid Government Reopening Hopes
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rose as hopes that the US government shutdown will end soon. A group of eight Democratic Senators reached a deal to support a deal to reopen the government without their preconditions on Obamacare subsidies. Instead, they agreed that the Senate Majority Leader would bring a bill focused on the proposals to the floor.
The ending of the government shutdown will be bullish for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as it will remove one of the top risks in the market. The other major risk was the trade conflict between the US and China, which has also eased in the past few weeks.
Ending of the shutdown will also help to provide clarity to market participants as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other government agencies will start releasing macro data on the labor market and inflation soon
The BTC/USD pair also rose as investors anticipated that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates in the coming meeting. Odds of a cut have jumped to over 70% in popular platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies do well when the Fed is cutting interest rates as this usually reduces the cost of borrowing money.
The BTC/USD pair is also reacting to a suggestion by Donald Trump that he may use part of the tariff revenue to send a $2,000 stimulus check. Some of these funds will flow to the crypto market as it happened during the pandemic.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has remained under pressure in the past few months, moving from a high of 126,300 in October to a low of 98,935. It has now attempted to rebound but has faced substantial rejection at 106,000.
The pair is about to form a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are about to cross each other. This pattern often leads to more downside.
It is also attempting to retest the important resistance level at 107,127, the lowest point on August 31 this year, and the neckline of the double-top pattern.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it resumes the downtrend and initially retests the support level at 100,000.
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