- Bitcoin fell roughly 4% on Tuesday, breaking below the 200-day EMA near $108,000.
- Market sentiment weakened after the Fed signaled uncertainty over rate cuts, with key support now seen at $100,000 and potential downside toward $84,000.
Bitcoin continues to struggle as the session for Tuesday has seen roughly a 4% loss, all things being equal. This is a market that has broken below the 200-day EMA, which is at the structurally important $108,000 level. Now it looks like we’re in a bit of freefall toward the $100,000 level next, which is, of course, a large, round, psychologically significant level that a lot of people will be paying attention to due to the psychology and, of course, the previous support that had been seen back there during the summer. I think at this point in time, Bitcoin is simply reflecting the reality of Bitcoin.
It is an institutional speculative asset now. While I do think that the institutions will save Bitcoin sooner or later, this was a market that had been betting on the idea that the Federal Reserve was going to start cutting rates every month. In the latest FOMC meeting and press conference, Jerome Powell did, in fact, state that a December rate cut wasn’t exactly a done deal. That, of course, has people questioning things.
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What’s interesting is that Bitcoin should be thriving in this environment if people really believed that central banks around the world were going to cut. What this tells me is that people are not willing to take a lot of risk right now. You need to have a lot of risk-taking out there in order to see Bitcoin jump.
At this point, if we were to turn around and break above the $108,000 level, where the 200-day EMA is, then I think that’s a bullish sign. But ultimately, this is a market that I think we need to pay close attention to at the $100,000 level because if we lose that, things get ugly, and Bitcoin probably goes down to $84,000 before it’s all said and done.
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