- Bitcoin fell about 3.5% on Monday, stirring panic and speculation online.
- Despite being bearish long-term, I see potential short-term buyers near $100,000, though emotion and speculation continue to dominate Bitcoin’s movement.
Bitcoin fell again during the trading session on Monday, losing about three and a half percent as I recorded in this video. My entire online social media situation out there is people whining about manipulation in the crypto market and, of course, doomsayers. I personally do not believe in Bitcoin and make no bones about it. However, I also recognize that when you look at the chart, we’re at the bottom of a consolidation range, poking through the 200-day EMA as we have for the last couple of weeks. And although things do look a little bit ugly and neglected here, I do think that buyers are waiting to get involved underneath.
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Federal Reserve
Part of what’s going on is the fact that the Federal Reserve may not be as loose with its monetary policy as once imagined, and it’s also worth noting that a lot of people got into crypto pretty early in the game and they’re willing to take profit.
This is a market that, when you look at it, we just rallied, broke out to the upside, broke through resistance, and now we’re just banging around, trying to figure out whether or not this holds. If it doesn’t, we could drop down to the $100,000 level or perhaps even down to $80,000. But if you change the numbers on the chart and just look at the pattern, if we were to drop down to $80,000 and bounce, you’d think this was a normal stock.
That’s the problem that you have with Bitcoin—there’s so much emotion involved in it. And of course, unfortunately, a lot of amateur detectives and influencers out there are causing chaos. There are some things that you need to think about when it comes to Bitcoin. It’s not actually being used for anything. That is the initial problem. But that’s been the case all along. I keep hearing about the great Bitcoin technologies that are being developed every day, yet when I walk outside in the real world, you don’t see it. I live in the United States. It’s a place where you would think money would be interested to come to. Evidently, it’s not.
So, I remain bearish long-term, meaning in years. I think eventually this all ends up poorly, but there are enough institutions involved that there is a padding between here and $100,000. Bitcoin is purely a speculative asset at this point. That hasn’t changed. And I do think that if we can break above the highs of the Friday candlestick, we could make a move towards $116,000. Again, if we drop, I believe $100,000 will attract enough attention that people get involved. Volume is, I don’t know, all over the place at the moment. But there’s not a lot there that makes me extremely concerned one way or the other.
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