My previous AUD/USD signal on 11th November was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.25%
Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6595 or $0.6659.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6553, $0.6531, or $0.6499.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast last Tuesday, I wrote that due to the public holiday in the USA, I thought that the price was likely to range between the inflection at $0.6516 and the resistance level at $0.6542 until the Tokyo open.
This was a good and accurate call, although not a profitable one for most as neither support nor resistance levels were reached that day.
The technical picture now is much more bullish, with the Australian Dollar the biggest gainer of the day, and the price has risen firmly to break through resistance levels. The main cause is the end of the prolonged US government shutdown a few hours ago, with the political deadlock in Congress finally resolved after the shutdown began to affect the US economy.
The US Dollar has also started to lose some ground in recent hours, which is surprising as the implied odds of a Fed rate cut at its next meeting in December have dropped from 63% to 53%, which would normally be expected to be positive news for the Dollar.
It is not clear how much further rally might go, of course, but technically the resistance at $0.6595, confluent with the round number at $0.6600, could be a meaningful obstacle.
I would look for a long scalp later following a bullish bounce at the support level of $0.6553.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either the AUD or the USD.
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