AUD/USD Forecast: Falls Toward 200-Day EMA Amid USD Strength

• I analyze the Australian dollar’s recent weakness as it tests the 200-day EMA amid broad U.S. dollar strength.
• Despite short-term rally potential, I remain bearish, watching key support near 0.64 and resistance around 0.6650 to 0.67.

The Australian dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as we are now threatening the 200-day EMA. The 200-day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people will be watching or paying attention to for potential support. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy.

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It should be noted that U.S. dollar strengthening has been a feature across the board, and the Australian dollar has been an underperformer for quite some time. Ultimately, I believe that the Australian dollar will continue to see plenty of selling pressure. Short-term rallies will continue to be sold into at the first signs of exhaustion. The 0.6550 level is an area that I’m watching very closely due to the fact that the 50-day EMA is there, and it’s more or less been a sign of fair value over the last couple of months.

As we break lower, the 0.64 level could be targeted. That’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure that has offered plenty of support. Anything below there opens up the possibility of the Australian dollar collapsing at that point and really starting to drop toward the 0.62 level. Short-term rallies, I think, open up the possibility for fading signs of exhaustion.

On a Break Higher

If we were to break above the 0.6650 level, then maybe we could make a run toward 0.67. But keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to global trade and to U.S.-China relations. With that being the case, I think you need to watch that sideline story as well. At this point, the market is a little bit more bearish than bullish, but it really doesn’t know what to do. If you’re a range-bound trader, though, this might be your market.

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