The USD/INR is near the 88.1700 vicinity as of this writing towards the end of October, this after the currency pair had begun the month around the 88.8500 ratios flourishing until the 10th.
The USD/INR has been able to demonstrate incremental lower price action the past two and a half weeks, this as U.S tariff rhetoric has softened and financial institutions are likely relaxing a bit more. When October started a heightened amount of tension was clear as President Trump applied pressure regarding tariff negotiations and the USD/INR traversed highs around 88.8500 for a couple of weeks.
The month of October and the value of the USD/INR shows just how much the Indian Rupee is controlled by the Reserve Bank of India. The currency pair bounced along resistance near 88.8500 until the 10th of October when it started to show signs of selling. Also, as a counterpart the USD/INR saw significant support around 87.5800 from the 16th until the 24th of October. The USD/INR is currently around 88.1700 depending on the bids and asks being seen on platforms and the spread is rather wide.
Sentiment Generated by Trade Agreements
Although President Trump took a tough stance against India towards the end of September and into October, India also showed quite a capable ability to negotiate with the U.S regarding tariffs. The White House has said over the past couple of weeks that India will purchase less Russian oil than it has in the past. That is yet to be seen completely, but financial institutions apparently have reacted favorably to this perceived development and the Reserve Bank of India clearly allowed the USD/INR to move lower as fears of trade problems with the U.S and India deescalated.
For those who doubt the trade negotiations and complications caused the movement in the USD/INR, they should note that on the 15th of October when the currency pair went from 88.7150 to nearly 87.7500 and lower the following day, that this occurred when President Trump started to indicate progress had been made regarding trade negotiations. Sentiment was a powerful motivation for USD/INR value in September and October. November may start to see more tranquil trading conditions.
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November and Economic Factors for the USD/INR
The ability of the USD/INR to begin trading in a rather steady realm around 88.1000 to 88.2000 the past few days has essentially put the currency pair back into terrain that was seen in the first week of September.
- There are no guarantees that President Trump will remain calm regarding his rhetoric towards India, but the recent announcements of a potential deal with China may also help ease tensions for financial institutions that are always looking to correlate outlooks.
- The U.S Federal Reserve will lower its interest rate today, the 29th of October, by 25 basis points.
- And the Fed’s outlook for borrowing rates in December will effect Forex, but the USD/INR may not correlate much to the U.S FOMC policy.
USD/INR Outlook for November 2025
Speculative price range for USD/INR is 87.9500 to 88.4500
The USD/INR remains within a price range dominated by the Reserve Bank of India as it looks to deal with domestic inflation and growth issues. The current ratios seen in the USD/INR are lower than they were from the 23rd of September until the 15th of October and they may stay below those higher marks in November. Looking ahead for day traders trying to pursue the USD/INR, the coming weeks will likely be influenced by sentiment that is generated based on U.S White House policy and the potential for calmer conditions. Unfortunately, due to the sudden potential of outbursts regarding difficult negotiating stances between the U.S and India, volatility still may be seen.
However, if the U.S and India continue to show outward signs of working in a coordinated manner in order to achieve mutually good outcomes, the USD/INR may prove rather stable in the coming weeks. While the USD/INR did go back to the 87.6000 to 88.0000 realms for a while during October, looking for values below 88.0000 may be too ambitious. Perhaps the Reserve Bank of India and financial institutions will be comfortable with current price elements being practiced and with incremental occasional moves higher.
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