Gold
Gold markets have been all over the place during the previous week, reaching a fresh, new high, only to turn around and plunge toward the $4000 level. As we close out the week, we are showing the first signs of serious hesitation. The question at this point in time is going to be whether or not this is a market that is trying to make a top, or if we are going to settle into some type of consolidation range. The latter of the 2 is probably the most likely of outcomes, but quite frankly, I think volatility is about the only thing you can count on right now.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 initially pulled back just a bit during the week, only to break above the 25,000 level. By doing so, the NASDAQ 100 has breached the 25,400 level, an area that will attract a certain amount of attention. Ultimately, this is a market that I think short-term pullbacks continue to get bought, and of course, we continue to see more of an uptrend over the longer term as buyers continue to bet on the United States and technology stocks overall. A weaker-than-anticipated CPI number on Friday has helped the market rally as well.
Crude Oil
Crude oil has been explosive to the upside during the trading week, mainly driven buying the new sanctions against the Russian Federation. Ultimately, this is a market that is in the midst of trying to form a bit of a double bottom, but there is enough resistance above that I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we roll over. I do, however, believe that this market will continue to see a significant bottom near the $56 level, so we may be simply trying to form the next consolidation area that we will be involved in.
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Silver
Silver fell during the bulk of the week, but it looks like the $47 level is trying to offer a certain amount of support. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to be very noisy, and it could very well be trying to form a consolidation area to try to work off some of the excess froth that we had seen previously. On the other hand, if the market were to break above the $52 level, silver could go much higher. If we can break down below the $46 level, then it’s likely that the market will fall rather significantly to reach the $40 level. I believe silver will continue to be very noisy and perhaps very dangerous.
GBP/USD
The British pound traders have seen quite a bit of negativity during the course of the week, as it looks like we are trying to sort out whether or not the longer-term uptrend can hold. We have broken through a major uptrend line, and now it looks as if we are trying to reach the 50 Week EMA, near the 1.32 level. Short-term rallies continue to be selling opportunities, and it’s probably worth noting that the high was during the FOMC Press Conference, and that the US dollar has mainly rallied for the most part since then.
EUR/USD
The US dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro, although it looks more or less like a consolidation phase at the moment. The 1.16 level continues to be a bit of a magnet for price, but if we can break down below the 1.1550 level, then I’m looking for the pair to drop to the 1.14 level. Anything below there opens up a big flush lower, and I believe this point in time, rallies will continue to be selling opportunities in a market that has been somewhat stagnant as of late.
DAX
The German index rallied during the week but continues to struggle with the €24,500 level. This is an area that’s been a bit of a headache for traders, but if we can finally clear that area, I anticipate that the DAX will continue to go much higher, perhaps opening up the possibility of a move to the €25,000 level. Short-term pullbacks will end up being buying opportunities, with the €24,000 level offering a short-term floor in this market. If we can break down below there, then the €23,000 level ends up being tested as major support. It’s worth noting that the 50 Week EMA is racing toward that area as well.
USD/JPY
The US dollar rallied quite nicely against the Japanese yen over the course of the previous week, and it now looks as if we are threatening a breakout yet again. The interest rate differential will continue to push the US dollar higher over the longer term in my estimation, but it is worth noting that most of this is driven due to the potential loose monetary policy that’s coming out of Japan after the latest elections. I remain a buyer and a holder of this pair.
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