Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3140.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3400.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3400.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3140.
The GBP/USD pair continued falling, reaching its lowest point since August 1 as the US dollar rose ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. It was trading at 1.3280, down by 3.40% from its highest point in September.
Federal Reserve Decision and Trump Meeting
The GBP/USD pair has continued moving downwards ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision. Odds are that the bank will cut rates for the second consecutive time in this meeting.
These odds accelerated after the Conference Board published the latest consumer confidence report. This report showed that confidence dropped slightly to 94.1 this month as the government shutdown continued.
American consumers are also concerned about the labor market. A report published by ADP earlier this month showed that the private sector lost 36,000 jobs in September after losing another 3,000 in August.
Amazon announced that it will fire about 14,000 workers even as it continues to do well. Some of these workers will be replaced by artificial intelligence tools. UPS, one of the top companies in the US, will also fire thousands of workers in the coming months.
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Donald Trump’s administration has also continued firing more Federal workers during the ongoing government shutdown in the United States.
Another report showed that US home prices posted the weakest gains in more than two years. Prices have now slowed in the last seven months, which is a good thing for buyers as it happened at a time when mortgage rates are in a downward trajectory.
The next important GBP/USD news will be the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which will seek to reduce the ongoing tensions between the biggest economies in the world. A potential trade deal will be a good thing for the US economy.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the GBP/USD exchange rate has remained under pressure in the past few days. It has dropped from a high of 1.3725 in September to 1.3275, its lowest level since August.
The pair has formed a double-top pattern at 1.3725 and is now nearing the neckline at 1.3140. It has also remained below the Supetrend indicator, a sign that the downtrend is intact.
Top oscillators like the Relative Strength Index and the Percentage Price Oscillator have also continued falling. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, with the next key target being at 1.3140. A move below that support will point to more downside in the near term.
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