- I was watching the British Pound try to rally early Thursday, but it couldn’t get above 1.32 before rolling over again.
- The dollar’s gaining strength across the board, and with the pound breaking major support, I’m looking forward to shorting any rallies.
The British Pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but has found the area above the 1.32 level to be a bit too much, and we have just fallen off again. I’ll bring to light that we’ve had two FOMC meetings since the peak, and we have done nothing but fall since then, with the occasional short-term bounce.
The US dollar is strengthening against almost everything, and it’s worth noting that the bond market yields really aren’t moving either. In other words, I do think that the US dollar has entered a bullish phase, and it is worth noting that we have broken a major support level during the trading session. If we break down below 1.31, then the market really could drop possibly as low as 1.2750 before it’s all said and done.
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The Pound Used to Be Strong
Until recently, the British Pound was one of the better performers against the US dollar, but clearly, people are expecting the Bank of England to have to cut rates and loosen monetary policy, and the British Pound has been punished as a result. Short-term rallies at this point, I believe, end up being selling opportunities, with the 1.32 level offering resistance and, of course, the 200-day EMA offering resistance at the 1.3273 level.
Breaking down below there during the previous session was a very serious shot across the bow, and the fact that we are continuing that overall downward pressure really drives home the idea that the US dollar is accelerating to the upside. As far as buying is concerned, at minimum, you would need to see a move back above the 200-day EMA, perhaps even a move above the 50-day EMA, which is hanging around the 1.34 level—an area that’s been important more than once as well. We broke a major uptrend line, and it looks like the US dollar is strengthening against almost everything. Therefore, shorting this pair makes perfect sense.
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