Potential signal:
I am a seller below 1.1550, with a stop at 1.1620, targeting 1.1420.
- The euro saw sharp volatility following the ECB decision and FOMC meeting, remaining range-bound between 1.1550 and 1.17.
- With Fed rate cuts off the table, sentiment favors fading rallies and maintaining a bullish stance on the U.S. dollar.
The euro has been all over the place as the Thursday session featured the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference. It’s not a huge surprise to see a lot of volatility, which was to be expected. Of course, we also had the FOMC meeting during the previous session on Wednesday. With that being the case, I think we are stuck in a bit of a range, and this range will likely continue to be an area that traders go back and forth in.
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Range Forming?
The 1.17 level and the 1.1550 level are the boundaries at this point, with the 50-day EMA sitting near the 1.1650 level. If we break down below the 1.1550 level, then I think the euro really starts to unravel. Quite frankly, I think that’s probably what happens over time since the Federal Reserve has taken the idea of December rate cuts being a given off the table, and in fact, literally stated that exact thing.
With that being the case, I think this market should be approached as a fade-the-rally situation. In this environment, I really don’t want to buy the euro. It’s worth noting that the U.S. dollar is climbing against almost all currencies, so the euro won’t be any different. If we were to break down below the 1.1550 level, then I think you’d have to get short again below the 1.14 level, at which point the euro could fall rather drastically.
We recently broke below both the 50-day EMA and an uptrend line that had been in effect since April. I believe we are rolling over, and I am bearish on this market—or perhaps even more importantly, I am very bullish on the U.S. dollar.
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